South Carolina vs. No. 16 Florida Picks & Predictions for Week 6 at The Swamp

South Carolina heads down to The Swamp with both teams licking fresh wounds. Florida is scrambling for answers after getting beat up by Missouri on the road, while South Carolina is hoping to save its coach’s job.

The Gators are 12.5-point favorites at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook heading into this matchup. Let’s get into it.

Florida Can’t Be Too Stubborn With the Run

For Florida, I don’t think you can be too stubborn with the running game. I felt like that’s what happened last week.

Florida was running its head up against a brick wall. Then all of a sudden, the Gators found themselves in automatic passing situations. There were a few reasons for that.

They were behind the sticks early in the first half. Vernell Brown III was out, and we don’t know his status for this week. Then Florida fell behind by a lot in the second half. All of that put the offense into automatic passing situations.

These aren’t my words. These are Buster Faulkner’s words this week. Faulkner said, “As of right now, we are not a football team that is going to be able to be in those automatic passing situations. That’s not where we’re comfortable.”

Obviously, Florida fans immediately took that as, “Well, why don’t you play Tramell Jones Jr.?” It immediately became the quarterback’s fault. I would counter with: I don’t know, man.

Missouri was getting home with three on Saturday. Missouri was getting after your butt on the defensive line. I felt like it was an offensive line issue.

Yeah, the quarterback had some problems. Aaron Philo was off his game, to say the least. But he was also without most of the surrounding parts that made him look like a really, really good quarterback through the first three or four weeks.

Florida had a dominant running game and a dominant screen game. Against Missouri, the Gators couldn’t do either. Missouri shut both down.

Florida Has to Find Other Answers on Offense

Not that Buster Faulkner needs my advice, but if South Carolina shuts down the traditional running game early – particularly on first-and-10 – Florida has to get into the screen game and other portions of the playbook.

The goal has to be getting into third-and-four instead of third-and-eight. Because if Florida is living in third-and-eight? It ain’t going to go. It’s just not going to go. That would be my initial key to the football game for Florida.

And most importantly, cover your ears, kids. Some of the stuff we’ve seen on tape from Florida, particularly defensively, has just not been acceptable.

I showed a clip in the film study this week of a Florida linebacker getting in the face of a Missouri offensive lineman about four seconds after the whistle and giving Missouri a free 15 yards. Can’t do it.

Florida also ran 10 players onto the field after the third-quarter break. Can’t do it. You cannot do those things and expect to win football games, let alone avoid getting embarrassed.

The offensive line didn’t show up against Missouri. The defense didn’t show up. The coaches didn’t really show up for portions of the game. When those three things happen in this conference, you’re going to lose by 35 points. That’s what’s going to happen. And that’s exactly what happened.

Those things have to get cleaned up.

Don’t Sleep on South Carolina’s Running Game

Here’s the other thing. South Carolina can run the damn ball. I think that gets lost because the Gamecocks are losing so many games and losing them the way they have.

But Kendal Briles has turned this offense around. South Carolina is top 10 in the country in yards per game. The Gamecocks are top three in the SEC in yards per game.

And right now, they have the best rushing offense in the conference. Matt Fuller, the young running back for South Carolina, is legit. This dude can take it to the house at any given moment. So Florida better bring a chin strap again this week on defense, or South Carolina is going to run through your face no differently than Missouri did.

The only difference is that I don’t think LaNorris Sellers is going to shred you through the air the way Austin Simmons did last week. But Florida is also sitting around 119th nationally in passing defense right now. So there’s that.

The Quarterbacks Are the X-Factors

If both defenses can handle the running game, this comes down to the quarterbacks. It has to.

Here’s the difference. I trust Philo not to turn the ball over. But I trust LaNorris Sellers to make more plays. So where do you go?

If this game gets put on the quarterbacks’ shoulders – and it very well could – my defensive game plan on either side would be simple: The rushing game will not beat me today. Make the quarterbacks win with their arms.

Philo might end up going 17-33 for 193 yards again. Sellers might drop back 39 times and throw four interceptions. But he might also throw for 300 yards. I don’t know.

What I do know is that I’m making sure the quarterbacks have to beat me, particularly through the air. Because Sellers? We know he’s going to run. We know he’s probably going to run for around 80 yards in this football game. If you’re a Florida fan, you just better hope it isn’t one 80-yard explosive. Because it might be.

South Carolina vs. Florida Prediction

Now it’s time for our “You Heard It Here First, Unless It Doesn’t Happen” predictions.

I’ve got South Carolina blowing yet another double-digit lead. You heard it here first. Unless it doesn’t happen.

Maybe it’s a 10-point lead. I don’t know if it’ll be a 17-point lead because, to be honest, if South Carolina gets up 17-0 on Florida, I think the Gamecocks might actually win this thing.

Right now, I don’t think Florida can simply throw its way back into a football game. Even Buster Faulkner doesn’t seem to think that. Florida has to balance its way back into a game.

If South Carolina takes a 17-point lead into the second half, the Gamecocks might be able to hold on. But they’re not going to. They’re already booing. They’re already chanting to fire Shane Beamer.

I’ve got Florida winning this football game.

• Final Score Prediction: Florida 34, South Carolina 20