Florida State vs. Louisville Picks, Predictions & Odds for Friday Night CFB

A dominant defensive showing, a record-setting performance from its quarterback and a second straight victory have given Florida State plenty to build on heading into Friday night’s ACC matchup against Louisville.

The Seminoles (3-2, 1-1 ACC) are coming off a 38-7 rout of Virginia at Doak Campbell Stadium, their most convincing result of the season. Quarterback Ashton Daniels led the way with 136 rushing yards and a school-record five touchdowns on the ground, while the defense piled up 10 sacks and held the Cavaliers to just 205 total yards.

It was a much-needed breakthrough for Florida State, which had endured a shaky start with losses to SMU and Alabama. The Seminoles now face the challenge of carrying that momentum onto the road, where they’ll meet a Louisville team looking to right the ship.

The Cardinals (2-3, 1-2 ACC) have been competitive in nearly every game, but have struggled to finish games. All three of Louisville’s losses have come by exactly three points, including a 31-28 defeat at NC State last weekend.

Quarterback Lincoln Kienholz has thrown for 1,394 yards and nine touchdowns through five games, although the Cardinals have struggled to find the defensive consistency needed to complement their offense.

Friday night’s game marks the first meeting between these programs since the 2023 ACC Championship Game, when Florida State held Louisville to just six points in a 16-6 victory.

Kickoff from L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium is scheduled for 7 p.m. ET on ESPN.

FSU vs. Louisville Odds

Louisville is listed as a short 3.5-point home favorite at Hard Rock Bet Sportsbook:

• Point Spread: Louisville -3.5 (-110) | Florida State +3.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Louisville -180 | Florida State +145
• Total: Over 59.5 (-105) | Under 59.5 (-115)

Referenced odds subject to change.

Florida State vs. Louisville Prediction

Florida State +3.5 (-110): Florida State could be facing a potential letdown spot after its dominant performance against Virginia, but getting more than a field goal against a Louisville team that has struggled to finish games makes the Seminoles an appealing road underdog.

The Seminoles own an 18-6 all-time record against the Cardinals, including a 7-3 mark in Louisville, and have won each of the last two meetings. Florida State’s most recent trip to Louisville came in 2022, when the Seminoles escaped with a 35-31 victory. They followed that up by defeating the Cardinals 16-6 in the 2023 ACC Championship Game, extending their winning streak in the series to two games.

Louisville has had difficulty turning competitive performances into victories this season. The Cardinals’ win over SMU stands out as their best result, but they have lost to every other FBS opponent they’ve faced. All three defeats have come by exactly three points, including their most recent setbacks against Wake Forest and NC State.

Even with home field advantage, asking Louisville to win by at least four points against a Florida State team coming off its most complete performance of the season may be too much to ask.

• Best Bet: Florida State +3.5 (-110)

Betting Splits at Hard Rock Bet

• Moneyline: Louisville has pulled in 53.8% of all ML tickets, but Florida State leads with 63.8% of the handle.
• Spread: Florida State +3.5 accounts for 56.5% of spread bets and 62.1% of the money.
• Total: Over 59.5 has received 66.6% of all wagers and 79.6% of the handle.

Florida State vs. Louisville Game Info

• 🏟️ Location: L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium – Louisville, Kentucky
• 📅 Date: Friday, October 9
• ⏰ Start Time: 7 p.m. ET
• 📺 Where to Watch: ESPN

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