NFL Week 5 Best Bets, Picks & Predictions with Joe Raineri – On Tilt

Alright, we’re heading into Week 5 of the NFL season, and I’ve got my top five plays of the weekend.

Let’s dive into these games.

Eagles vs. Jaguars: Jaguars -7.5

We’re going to start in London with the early Sunday game as the Philadelphia Eagles take on Jacksonville.

Hard Rock Bet opened this game at Jacksonville -4.5, and now it sits at -7.5 with the total at 41.5.

So why the big move towards the Jags, you’re asking? Let’s review what kind of week it has been for the Eagles, shall we?

On Tuesday, Lane Johnson retired. On Wednesday, the Eagles traded their Pro Bowl center to the Baltimore Ravens. Two starters on the offensive line gone in two days. Some of the guys replacing them will be introducing themselves to the rest of the team on the flight to London.

Johnson was not slipping either. He might be the biggest loss of them all. He allowed pressure on just 3.6% of his snaps. The rookie who replaced him last week, Markel Bell, allowed four pressures on 32 snaps. That’s 12.5% of the time.

Now, let’s look at who this rookie won’t be blocking for this week. DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert are likely out again. And, of course, Saquon Barkley likely won’t see the field this week either.

Last week without that trio, Philadelphia gained a total of 172 yards, about three yards a play. And don’t let the 20 points fool you versus the Rams, because that was all about turnovers and special teams handing them a short field.

This year, Smith and Goedert averaged nine yards a target. Everybody else averaged 6.5. Last week, everybody else got 4.1 yards.

The lead back is now Will Shipley again. Shipley has averaged 3.1 yards a carry for his career.

On the other side of the ball is a Jacksonville offense that has been six points a game better than average.

This game opened Jacksonville by 4.5. It’s been bet all the way up, and it’s still not high enough for me. I make the number 8.5.

If I can get 7.5 at Hard Rock Bet, I am on the Jacksonville Jaguars.

Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5

Texans at Titans: Under 37.5

Game two is Houston at Tennessee. On the Hard Rock Bet app, Houston is a 7.5-point favorite, and the total has dropped to 37.5.

Houston’s games are averaging 48 points, and Houston has one of the best defenses in football. At least they used to.

Both things can be true because if you look at the schedule thus far for Houston, all four Texans games were played in domes. Three of them were against Buffalo, Cincinnati and Dallas, offenses that can play and can score.

Houston still gained almost 5.5 yards a play, but they also gave up 5.5 yards a play. That’s below the league average, by the way, in the best conditions you can get.

Down by down, when you look at the numbers, I think this defense is still one of the top three in the NFL. What has hurt them is third down.

Under DeMeco Ryans, they have been one of the best third-down defenses in football for three years running. This year, they’re average, middle of the road.

I expect it to get better, especially since Ryans told us this week that he’ll be taking over the defensive play-calling.

The problem with Houston continues to be the offense. They’re averaging about six points worse than what an average NFL offense does this season.

Now they go to Tennessee, where the Titans score a whopping 13.8 points a game. Last week, they trailed Baltimore 24-7 at the half, and it only got close after the Ravens lost Lamar Jackson.

This week, nobody gets a dome. There’s a hurricane coming out of the Gulf, and Nashville could see anywhere between one and three inches of rain over the weekend.

So I get two winless teams, two defensive-minded coaches and a hurricane.

Somebody in the TV truck is going to lose a bet here because my number is 35 before the weather even showed up.

And the fact that 37.5 is available? Yep, I’ll be on the Under.

Pick: Texans-Titans Under 37.5

Vikings at Saints: Vikings -2.5

Game number three is the Minnesota Vikings at the New Orleans Saints.

Tyler Shough has thrown nine interceptions in his NFL career. And guess what? All nine have come against zone coverage.

The Minnesota Vikings defense plays man coverage only 4% of the time, the least amount in football. And they blitz on 67% of the snaps, the most in the NFL.

Shough has struggled against the blitz this year. So Sunday, he’s going to get the exact look behind every interception he has ever thrown, with somebody in his face for most of the day.

That is what Minnesota does.

Now, I am not selling you that the Vikings offense, at 4.4 yards a play, is something special.

They beat Chicago 9-3. And I’m not talking about the Cubs. Yes, 9-3. The score looks like a typo. I get it.

And I’m assuming Justin Jefferson and Jordan Addison, who was hurt last week, probably aren’t going to play in this game.

But I think this is where it flips because New Orleans defensively also plays a lot of zone.

And if it’s the one thing that Kyler Murray can do well, and there’s not a lot, he loves the zone.

Against man, he completes 56%, and he’s done that for his career. Against the zone, 72% on more than a thousand throws, by the way. So it’s not a short sample size here.

He runs more against it as well, and he gets the Saints defense that just gave up 45 to Atlanta on Monday night.

The Vikings do not need to do much here. They win the way they always win, with defense and special teams.

I made this number closer to 3.5. Put me on Minnesota to head into their bye week with a 5-0 record. Can’t believe that.

Pick: Minnesota Vikings -2.5

Colts at Steelers: Under 44.5

Next up, we have Colts at Steelers.

Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point favorite at home, with the total set at 44.5.

Let’s look at the Colts offensively. They miss Alec Pierce, no doubt. He averaged 10.3 yards a target. Every other Colts receiver on this roster right now, 6.8.

That’s a problem because Pierce led the league in yards per catch each of the last two seasons for the Colts. Without him, the Colts passing game has been absolutely awful over the last couple of weeks.

But maybe help is coming. Sort of.

Darius Slayton is making his debut, and he is reunited with an old Giants quarterback, Danny Dimes, Daniel Jones. Giants fans are shaking their heads right now.

Slayton, however, I think is a real receiver. He’s averaged 8.5 yards a target for his career.

But the Colts also lost their center, Tanor Bortolini, who I thought was on his way to having a Pro Bowl season. His replacement has two career starts.

So whatever you think Slayton brings to the table offensively, the middle of that offensive line likely takes it back.

Pittsburgh has been better on offense lately. Rico Dowdle got hurt, and then Jaylen Warren came in running for 5.6 yards a carry. He also catches it well out of the backfield.

But this is still a very below-average offense that runs a very old-school type of offense because Aaron Rodgers doesn’t want to deal with a whole lot of motion.

And against a Colts defense that’s just about average, that’s probably enough.

And no, the Steelers defense is not playing anywhere close to what they’re being paid.

But let’s be honest, Jamel Dean is out, right? We know he’s not going to be there. And the rookie who is going to replace him has already given up 141 yards on nine throws. Not great for Pittsburgh.

But they still have this guy named TJ Watt.

I’ll tell you this. I don’t think these two offenses can hurt you. I also think both defenses will be up to the task.

I made the total about 43.5, and I see value in backing the Under in this matchup because I do not trust either offense in this spot.

Pick: Colts-Steelers Under 44.5

Bills at Rams: Bills +3.5

My fifth and final game of the week is on Monday Night Football, and it should be a good one as the Buffalo Bills take on the Los Angeles Rams.

Hard Rock Bet has the Rams listed as a 3.5-point favorite, with the total sitting at 54.5.

Now, I have a question for whoever made this line.

The Rams are 2-2. They blew a 16-0 halftime lead in Denver. Last week, they were down 10 at the half to an Eagles offense that gained 172 yards and needed two touchdowns in the last four minutes to win.

And for that, the Rams got a bump here.

Buffalo lost by three to New England, a team that has always played them tough in their division. And yeah, the Bills lost that game. They got knocked down.

So the Rams are laying more than a field goal to Josh Allen, which, by the way, might be the most points that Allen and the Buffalo Bills have gotten in a game in a very long time.

I make this a pick’em game.

And they’re playing at SoFi. That building has never scared anybody, so throw that out of the equation. There is no home field advantage here.

This line is telling me that the Rams are about two, 2.5 points better than Buffalo.

I don’t see it. I think it might be the other way around. I think the Rams still have a lot of questions about what this team is. They still turn the ball over far too often.

I think the Bills will still be there in the end as one of the best teams in the AFC.

And look, Buffalo getting points with Josh Allen, the most important player in football as far as I’m concerned.

Get him down 10 in the fourth quarter, and he gets even more dangerous.

That is just not a guy I want to bet against. And on Monday night, I won’t be.

Give me Josh Allen and the points on what should be a very fun Monday night game.

Pick: Buffalo Bills +3.5

Joe Raineri’s NFL Week 5 Picks

• Jacksonville Jaguars -7.5
• Texans-Titans Under 37.5
• Minnesota Vikings -2.5
• Colts-Steelers Under 44.5
• Buffalo Bills +3.5